MARKOV’S MODELS OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Abstract

The article describes the problems of development of stochastic models of economic systems based on
Markov’s random processes with discrete conditions and discrete time. The concept of economic system is
detailed. As a system parameter, characterizing its condition, such informative parameters as sales volume
and added value are proposed. The article investigates such conditions with the help of which the stage length
of the economic system is defined: at the stage length the system when transferring to the neighbor condition
shall manage to do this transfer; probability of several transitions at the stage should present a small value
which can be neglected. General events that can change the probability of economic system transition to the
new stage are specified in the article.
Stochastic models, considered in the article, create an essential base for designation of evolution of system
conditions distributions through time, strategy selection, maximizing system parameters and the analysis
of economic stability of the system. The analysis of economic stability is connected with expected movements
of the system. Stability characteristics are the following: system location in effective conditions on
every step of calculation and entering of accumulated during the forecast period value into the target area.