COMPLEX ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF FORECASTING THE FACTORS OF INFLUENCE ON INDICATORS OF THE BUDGET OF THE PENSION FUND OF RUSSIA FOR THE PERIOD OF 2019–2020

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of forecasting the budget indicators of the Pension Fund of Russia (PFR). It will focus on the income, expenses and budget deficit of the Fund. These indicators, in turn, are associated with certain factors, for example: the number of insured persons, pensioners, etc. Thus, it is revealed which factors primarily affect the budget indicators, and the degree of their influence. Also in the article the forecast of these factors for the short-term period of 2019-2020 is made, using econometric methods. The developed model is aimed at the possibility of further forecasting the income and expenditure indicators of the PFR, and will also contribute to a more rational implementation of the process of managing the PFR budget indicators.