Control of the Regional Social Resource Dynamic Based on the Regression-Differential Simulation

Abstract

In this paper, we adopted a linear combination of normalized partial criteria from the publicly available statistical data as the assessment of the social resource development. We have shown the stability of their ranking to the small possible errors of the expert determination of ranks. We demonstrated impossibility of applying traditional econometric models to solve this task. We developed a model based on the second order regression differential equation allowing predict consequences of solutions on the development of the social resource in a tactical perspective. The peculiarity of this model is in use of the publicly available statistical factors, for which we determined their relative importance, coefficients of mutual influence, best approximation between values of the annual statistical series and other adaptation model parameters. We determined positive and negative forecast areas and gave recommendations for improvement of the social resource dynamics.